How our estimates work

We estimate what a ride is likely to cost. We do not have live prices from any ride company, and nothing here is a quote.

Why a range and not a price

Ride apps set a price for each rider at the moment they ask. Two people requesting the same trip at the same time are often shown different amounts. A single number would be wrong for most of them, so every result is a range: about half of riders at that hour are quoted something inside it. Some will see less and some will see more, especially during events, storms and late-night rushes.

How a price is built

The route. We route your trip by road with current traffic, or the traffic expected at the time you choose. Time on the road is a large part of a fare, so this matters more than distance alone.
Local rates. Each city has its own price level. Where a company publishes its rates we use them. For New York we fit rates to the city's public trip records. Elsewhere we start from national rates.
Tuning to the city. In 38 metro areas we adjust the price level against recent real-world prices for that city, and keep some routes aside to test against.
Hour of the week. We adjust for the day and hour using patterns from millions of real trips in public records.
Ride type. Larger and premium rides are priced from the standard fare using how much more they typically cost.
Fees. Airport pickup and dropoff fees and city charges are added on top. Where we have not confirmed an airport's fee, the page says the figure is estimated.
Tolls. For major bridges, tunnels and toll plazas that charge every car one published rate, the toll is added when your route crosses one in the direction that pays. We use the transponder rate around midday, which is the rate Uber and Lyft say they bill, not the higher pay-by-mail rate. Around New York, the San Francisco Bay Area, Philadelphia and Seattle, both companies also charge the toll when you cross a one-way crossing in its free direction, to cover the driver's way back, so we add it there as a return toll. Toll roads that charge by distance are not priced; the result names the road and says its toll is left out. Optional express lanes are ignored, because riders are not billed for them.
Rider reports. When riders tell us what an app quoted, we use it to correct future estimates for that city.

Taxis

Taxi fares come from each city's regulated meter rates: an initial charge, a rate per mile, and a rate per minute when the cab is stopped or crawling. A meter never charges for both at once, so we split each trip into time in slow traffic and distance at speed, using how fast the trip is overall. That split is an approximation, which is why a metered fare is shown as a range. Where a city sets a flat fare, such as an airport run, we use it. Night, rush-hour and extra-passenger charges are listed on city pages but not added to estimates.

What the confidence labels mean

High confidence. Local rates, corrected by recent rider reports for that city.
Good confidence. Local rates, or a price level tuned to that city.
Rough estimate. National rates, because we have no local price data yet.
Indicative. Self-driving services, which publish no rates. These come from the limited comparisons that have been made public.

How close we get

We test the model on routes that were held out of the tuning. In our latest check, when the distance and time of a trip are known, the middle of our range was within about 4% of recent average prices on a typical held-out route. Real trips vary more than that, because traffic and demand at the moment you ride are not the average.

What is not included

Tips, and tolls on roads that charge by distance.
Promotions, memberships and credits on your account.
Sudden demand spikes, such as when a stadium empties.
Waiting-time and long-pickup charges.

Self-driving rides

We track where each self-driving service carries riders, who can ride, and which app books it. Service areas are traced by the community from each company's published maps, so they can lag a change by days or weeks. A result will say whether both ends of your trip are inside an area, but the company's own app is the final word.

Keeping things current

Promo codes, airport details and self-driving coverage all change without notice. We check them as often as we can and show the date we last did, and we mark items that have not been checked recently. We would sooner tell you something might be out of date than present it as verified.

If you see something wrong, . Reports go straight to the people who maintain the data.

Where the data comes from

Trip patterns: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission trip records.
Published rate cards, where ride companies make them available.
Taxi rates: each city's taxi regulator. Toll rates: each bridge, tunnel or road operator. Airport pickup details and fees: each airport's ground transportation pages.
Place locations: OpenStreetMap contributors.
Self-driving service areas: Robotaxi Tracker (CC BY 4.0) and AV Map (MIT), which also supplies the history before mid-2026.